Saturday, August 27, 2011

AFC Round Three: Group C Preview

Next up in Asia is group C, the group of death in this round. Two of the four teams in the group made the 2010 World Cup, Japan and North Korea. Japan also won the 2011 Asian Cup while group member Uzbekistan made the semifinals. Tajikistan rounds out this group after being reinstated in the competition. Syria originally was placed into this group after beating Tajikistan in round two, but were disqualified after fielding ineligible player George Mourad in both games.

Japan

FIFA rank: 15

2010 qualifying result: Qualified for World Cup, eliminated in round of 16 on penalties to Paraguay

How they got here: Received a bye to this round

Japan is without a doubt the best team in Asia at the moment, having been unbeaten since the last World Cup, and is expected to make its fifth consecutive World Cup. Italian Alberto Zaccheroni took over in August 2010 and his first official match in charge was a shock 1-0 win over Argentina.

His first tournament in charge was the 2011 Asian Cup. After a troubling 1-1 draw with Jordan in its opening match, the side turned on the style for the rest of the group, beating Syria 2-1 and Saudi Arabia 5-0. It was enough to win the group and set up a quarterfinal match versus Bahrain.

Shinji Kagawa scored two goals and Japan came back from a 2-1 deficit to win 3-2 behind Masahiko Inoha's 89th minute goal. In the semifinals, Japan defeated rival South Korea on penalties to make the final. Goalkeeper Eiji Kawashima saved all three penalties he faced in the shootout. This set up a final against Australia. With the match still 0-0 after 90 minutes, it entered extra time and appeared to be headed to penalty kicks. Finally, in the 109th minute, Tadanari Lee scored his first international goal to give Japan its fourth title and third in the last four editions. The win also qualifies Japan for the 2013 Confederations Cup.

Japan easily qualified for the 2010 World Cup, winning its first qualifying group with 13 points from its six group matches against Bahrain, Oman and Thailand. In the final group stage, Japan finished second to Australia with 15 points from its eight matches. This was enough to beat out Bahrain, who finished with 10 points, for the second automatic qualifying spot.

At the tournament, Japan advanced to the knockout stages after finishing second in group E with six points. The side won its opening match against Cameroon 1-0 and then fell to the Netherlands 2-0. Its final group match resulted in a 3-1 win over Denmark. In the round of 16, Japan battled Paraguay to a scoreless draw, but lost in penalty kicks 5-3.

In August, Japan defeated South Korea 3-0 in a friendly, a great sign for its upcoming qualifiers. Here is the squad called in for the first two qualifying matches.

Goalkeepers: Eiji Kawashima (Lierse SK/BEL), Shusaku Nishikawa (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Shuichi Gonda (FC Tokyo)

Defenders: Yuichi Komano (Jubilo Iwata), Yasuyuki Konno (FC Tokyo), Yuzo Kurihara (Yokohama Marinos), Masahiko Inoha (Hajduk Split/CRO), Tomoaki Makino (1FC Koln/GER), Atsuto Uchida (FC Schalke/GER), Maya Yoshida (VVV Venlo/NED)

Midfielders: Yasuhito Endo (Gamba Osaka), Kengo Nakamura (Kawasaki Frontale), Yuki Abe (Leicester City/ENG), Makoto Hasebe (Wolfsburg/GER), Hajime Hosogai (FC Augsburg/GER), Yosuke Kashiwagi (Urawa Red Diamonds)

Forwards: Tadanari Lee (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), Shinji Okazaki (VfB Stuttgart/GER), Keisuke Honda (CSKA Moscow/RUS), Takayuki Morimoto (Novara/ITA), Shinji Kagawa (Borussia Dortmund/GER), Hiroshi Kiyotake (Cerezo Osaka), Genki Haraguchi (Urawa Red Diamonds)

Okazaki and Honda are the two stars of the side and are expected to lead the front line. Japan is very experienced in the midfield with Endo, Nakamura, Abe and Hasebe all having played together for awhile. Uchida of Schalke has over 40 caps for the national side and is only 23.

Japan is the favorite and this group and despite the overall strength of the group, the side should be able to finish at the top.

North Korea

FIFA rank: 114

2010 qualifying result: Qualified for World Cup, eliminated with zero points from three games

How they got here: Received a bye to to this round

In 2010, North Korea qualified for its second World Cup and first since 1966. In the 1966 version, North Korea made the quarterfinals after a huge 1-0 upset win over Italy. Unfortunately, the side's luck was not the same in 2010.

After an impressive 2-1 defeat to favorite Brazil, North Korea was trounced 7-0 by Portugal and 3-0 by Ivory Coast. Star striker Ji Yun-Nam scored the lone goal of the tournament for North Korea, and statistically the side finished last out of all 32 nations.

The road to South Africa was a difficult one for North Korea, and was a tremendous accomplishment. After dispatching Mongolia 9-2 on aggregate to make the group stages, the side was placed with South Korea, Jordan and Turkmenistan. Not expected to advance, North Korea went unbeaten with three wins and three draws to make the final round. There they were placed with South Korea again, as well as Saudi Arabia, Iran and U.A.E.

Going into the final match, North Korea was tied with Saudi Arabia for second place and only one point ahead of Iran. A 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia, combined with a 1-1 draw between South Korea and Iran, saw North Korea qualify due to a better goal difference.

Since the World Cup, North Korea has struggled with its form, including a disappointing Asian Cup campaign. There the side opened with a 0-0 draw with the U.A.E. followed by two troubling losses against Iran and Iraq. In preparation for the opening round of qualifiers, North Korea drew 0-0 with Kuwait in early August.

Not much info is known about the North Korean side, due to the way the country is run. They have not released a squad for the first two qualifying games yet. They are coached Yun Jong-Su.

The recent run of poor form has seen the side plummet in the world rankings, so despite the fact they had a bye to this stage, they were seeded in the worst pot. Unless something quickly changes, North Korea seems unlikely to repeat its run to the World Cup.

Tajikistan

FIFA rank: 153

2010 qualifying result: Eliminated 3-1 on aggregate by Singapore in round two

How they got here: Defeated Syria 6-0 on aggregate in round two

A 6-0 aggregate win over Syria in round two looks great in the official results, but that does not tell any of the story of Tajikistan's journey. The side originally lost 6-1 on aggregate until they complained to FIFA about Syria playing George Mourad.

Mourad had previously been capped by Sweden in 2005 during two friendlies. He was still eligible to switch to Syria since he had not played in any official competition for Sweden. However, it appeared FIFA did not receive the proper paperwork detailing his change of nationality. FIFA's governing body sided with Tajikistan and threw the results of both legs out and made them both 3-0 victories to Tajikistan.

Tajikistan has never qualified for a World cup nor an Asian Cup. Already this is the furthest they have gotten in qualifying. In the last cycle they defeated Bangladesh 6-1 on aggregate in the first round, before falling to Singapore 3-1 on aggregate in the second.

Tajikistan's biggest achievement as a footballing nation was a win in the AFC Challenge Cup in 2006. This is a competition held for emerging nations in the continent, in an effort to help them develop football in their countries. The side won the inaugural edition in 2006, defeating Sri Lanka 4-0 in the final. In the 2008 tournament they finished second, losing to India 4-1 in the final. They placed third in 2010, defeating Myanmar 1-0 i the third place match. They are not eligible for the 2012 edition since they have risen too high up in comparison to the other nations.

Alimzhon Rafikov is currently the head coach of Tajikistan. He called in this squad for the first two qualifying matches.

Goalkeepers:
1. Alisher Tuychiev - Istiklol
2. Alisher Dodov - Regar-TadAZ
3. Vladimir Sisoev - Regar-TadAZ

Defenders:
4. Farhod Vosiev - Shinnik, Russia
5. Davron Ergashev - Istiklol
6. Jeraj Rajabov - Istiklol
7. Sohib Suvonkulov - Istiklol
8. Akmal Saburov - Istiklol
9. Umid Habibulloev - Istiklol
10. Odil Ergashev - Istiklol
11. Safarali Karimov - Regar-TadAZ
12. Farruh Choriev - Regar-TadAZ

MF:
13. Ibragim Rabimov - Istiklol
14. Fathullo Fathulloev - Istiklol
15. Mahmadali Sodikov - Istiklol
16. Dilshod Vosiev - Istiklol
17. Jahongir Jalilov - Istiklol
18. Nuriddin Davronov - Istiklol
19. Hurshid Mahmudov - Regar-TadAZ
20. Jamshid Ismoilov - Regar-TadAZ
21. Ilhom Ortikov - CSKA Pomir

Forwards:
22. Navruz Rustamov - Ravshan
23. Numon Hakimov - Regar-TadAZ
24. Jusuf Robiev - Istiklol
25. Farhod Tohirov - Istiklol

Robiev and Hakimov are the top two scorers in history for Tajikistan, with 15 and 14 goals respectively. Midfielder Rabimov can also score for the side, with seven career goals. The side has not played a competitive fixture since the Syria game.

Tajikistan is really lucky to be here and while they are developing nicely and improving, they probably will not pose a huge threat to the elite teams in this group.

Uzbekistan

FIFA rank: 82

2010 qualifying result: Eliminated in final group stage with four points from eight games

How they got here: Defeated Kyrgyzstan 7-0 in round two

Currently the sixth highest ranked team in Asia, Uzbekistan has been right on the precipice of achieving some great accomplishments, but has not been able to get over the hump.

The biggest near-miss came in qualifying for the 2006 World Cup. They had placed third in its group for the final round, meaning it had to playoff against the third place team in the other group, Bahrain, for a spot in the intercontinental playoff against Trinidad and Tobago. They originally won the home leg 1-0, but due to a referee error, the match was ordered replayed by FIFA. The replay finished in a 1-1 draw, and the away goal by Bahrain proved crucial as they held Uzbekistan to a 0-0 draw and advanced.

In 2010 qualifying, Uzbekistan once again made the final round. They won its group in the first group round, edging out Saudi Arabia on goal difference. The side could not measure up to Japan, Australia, Bahrain and Qatar and finished bottom of the group. Its lone win was a 4-0 triumph over Qatar.

The 2011 Asian Cup was Uzbekistan's best result at a major tournament. They won group A on the strength of 2-0 win against Qatar, a 2-1 victory over Kuwait, and a draw 2-2 to China. This was enough to win the group. In the quarterfinals, Uzbekistan met up with Jordan. Ulugbek Bakayev was on target twice for a 2-1 win. Unfortunately for Uzbekistan, they were thrashed 6-0 in the semifinals by Australia and fell 3-2 in the third place match against South Korea.

Uzbekistan is coached by Vadim Abramov and this is the squad he called in for the first two qualifying matches.

Goalkeepers:
Ignatiy Nesterov 1983 Bunyodkor
Viktor Mochalov 1991 Bunyodkor

Defenders:
Shavkat Mullajonov 1986 - Al-Ahli, Qatar
Viktor Karpenko 1977 - Bunyodkor
Islom Tuhtahodjaev 1989 - Neftchi
Anzur Ismailov 1985 - Changchun Yatai, China
Akbar Ismatullaev 1991 - Pakhtakor
Salim Mustafaev 1991 - Dinamo
Vitaliy Denisov 1987 - Dnepr, Ukraine

MF:
Server Djeparov 1982 - Al-Shabab, Saudi Arabia
Odil Ahmedov 1987 - Anji, Russia
Sanjar Tursunov 1986 - Volga, Russia
Timur Kapadze 1981 - Incheon United FC, Korea Republic
Aziz Haydarov - 1985 Al-Shabab, UAE
Vagiz Galiulin 1987 – Sibir, Russia
Stanislav Andreev 1988 - Pakhtakor
Lutfulla Turaev 1988 - Nasaf
Fozil Musaev 1989 - Nasaf
Jasur Hasanov 1989 - Buhoro
Djavlon Ibragimov 1990 Bunyodkor

Forwards
Aleksandr Geynrikh 1984 - Suvon, Korea Republic
Maksim Shatskikh 1978 - Arsenal, Ukraine
Ulugbek Bakaev 1978 – Djetisu, Kazakhstan
Marat Bikmaev 1986 - Alaniya, Russia
Bahodir Nasimov 1987 – Neftchi, Azerbaijan

Geynrikh has 24 international goals in 64 caps, including three at the Asian Cup. Midfielder Djeparov is the captain and has 16 goals in 75 caps. Maksim Shatskikh played ten years at Dynamo Kyiv in the Ukraine, and has 33 goals in his international career. In a good sign for the future of Uzbek football, the U-17 side made the quarterfinals of the 2011 U-17 World Cup.

Uzbekistan has been steadily growing as one of the better teams in Asia and will want to continue that with another final round appearance. There is added pressure on them, since the side is being tipped as a sleeper pick to qualify for the World Cup.

Prediction


Japan is in great form at the moment and should be able to top the group. Tajikistan will finish bottom of the group, there is too much of a gulf in quality between the sides. It will come down to Uzbekistan and North Korea for the second spot in the final round. Uzbekistan will narrowly edge the Koreans who have been in a decline since the World Cup.

1. Japan
2. Uzbekistan
3. North Korea
4. Tajikistan

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